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The latest production and sales statistics of the authoritative department show that the output of crude steel in China has been increasing recently, and steel sales have also increased significantly year-on-year. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in April increased by 12.7% to 85.03 million tons, a record high. Steel production in April increased by 11.5% to 102.05 million tons.
Chen Kexin, chief analyst of the Lange Steel Economic Research Center, said that the national steel inventory index for the weekend was 114.1 points, down 2.5% from the same period last year, of which construction steel fell 8.4%. Crude steel production showed double-digit growth but no increase in inventories, indicating strong demand for steel in China.
According to the monitoring data released by the relevant agencies on the 23rd, the weekly production of rebar increased by 31,600 tons to 3.8152 million tons, an increase of 742,200 tons; the social stock of rebar decreased by 278,600 tons to 5,598,300 tons, and the inventory of steel mills decreased by 104,000. Ton to 2.044 million tons.
"On the 23rd, the third round of coke market has basically risen, and most coke enterprises are optimistic about the market outlook." Recently, environmental inspections in Shanxi have become stricter and intermittent production has increased. From the perspective of downstream demand, steel mills still have more demand for coke in the near future. Therefore, there is still a rising expectation in the coke market.
For iron ore, analysts at Goldman Sachs said China’s unexpected increase in iron ore use is increasing supply shortages. Goldman Sachs raised its average iron ore price target for 2019 from $81 per ton to $91 per ton. Steel industry experts have previously said in an interview that the iron ore rise has seriously affected the profit of steel mills, and also supported steel prices when demand is still acceptable.
According to analysis by many brokerage research teams such as Guotai Junan, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the second and third quarters is expected to exceed 10%, which has also boosted the market's expectation of demand for rebar. Qiu Yuecheng, director of black research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, predicts that the price of thread will remain high and fluctuate in the short term.
However, some steel analysts told reporters that the steel market will soon usher in the traditional low season of consumption, and the next market will tend to fluctuate. Chen Kexin believes that the domestic steel market will enter a new period of turmoil, generally there will be no unilateral market, and steel prices should not be blindly optimistic.